2022 Kentucky Derby odds, betting strategy, cheat sheet: Expert who nailed prep races makes picks

With less than a month until the 2022 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, the field for the 148th Run for the Roses is starting to take shape. There are eight 2022 Kentucky Derby horses that have collected at least 100 points from prep races, but only two have already topped $1 million in career earnings. Epicenter, trained by Steve Asmussen, sits atop the standings with 164 points, while Tiz the Bomb, trained by Kenneth G. McPeek, is fifth with 110. Epicenter is the 5-1 favorite in the current 2022 Kentucky Derby odds, while Tiz the Bomb is going off as a 20-1 longshot in the 2022 Kentucky Derby field. With a wide-open, 20-horse field expected to enter the starting gate, you’ll want to see what racing insider and Beyer Speed Figure maker Bob Weir has to say before making any 2022 Kentucky Derby picks.

A Saratoga Springs-based racing insider and Beyer Speed Figure maker, Weir is a two-time qualifier for the prestigious National Horseplayers Championship in Las Vegas. He has produced multiple five-figure days at the track over the years, including a $60,000 Pick 6 at Del Mar in 2014. Last year, he was on fire. He hit the exacta in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, Tampa Bay Derby and Peter Pan Stakes, the trifecta in the Risen Star Stakes, Blue Grass Stakes and Pennsylvania Derby and the superfecta in the Belmont Stakes.

This year, he has been red-hot in the 2022 Kentucky Derby prep races, hitting the superfecta in the Blue Grass Stakes, the trifecta in the Louisiana Derby and the exacta in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and Tampa Bay Derby. He also has hit the trifecta in the Pegasus World Cup and multiple Pick 4s, among other scores. Now, he has handicapped the 2022 Kentucky Derby field, made his picks and constructed his bets. Click here to see them.

Top 2022 Kentucky Derby expert picks

One surprise: Weir is tossing Taiba, even though he is one of the top 2022 Kentucky Derby contenders at 6-1 and just won the Santa Anita Derby. Taiba has obvious speed after posting triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures in both of his starts so far. However, inexperience figures to be a major hurdle.

Taiba didn’t race as a two-year-old, bested a seven-horse field in his maiden win at Santa Anita, and then a six-horse field in the Santa Anita Derby. Now, he’ll be charged with a cross-country trip to face a 2022 Kentucky Derby field that will feature 19 other horses. To make matters worse, no horse has won the Kentucky Derby in its third start since Leonatus in 1883.

Instead, Weir is high on Charge It, even though he’s a 20-1 long shot. Trained by Todd Pletcher, Charge It has raced just three times, winning once and finishing second twice. He is coming off a runner-up finish behind White Abarrio in the Florida Derby on April 2.

In that race, he broke slowly, got dirt kicked in his face for the first time and zig-zagged down the stretch, but still almost caught the winner. “There’s no doubt he’s talented, and if he acts a little more professional in Kentucky, he can improve,” Weir told SportsLine. Weir is including Charge It in his 2022 Kentucky Derby bets.

How to make 2022 Kentucky Derby predictions, bets

Weir is high on three other horses, including an epic long shot who’s “hard to ignore” and worth a “long look.” Weir is including these horses in his 2022 Kentucky Derby bets, and so should you. He’s only sharing his 2022 Kentucky Derby cheat sheet and picks here.

Who wins the Kentucky Derby 2022? And which enormous double-digit long shot is a must-back? Check out the latest Kentucky Derby odds 2022 below, then visit SportsLine to see Weir’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed this year’s prep races.

2022 Kentucky Derby odds, contenders, lineup