The Bet.NOLA.com team already has made its win total picks, a primer on how to bet baseball for beginners and World Series and award predictions.
Now we’ll move on to division winners.
We’ll provide two things in each division: Our pick to win, and our best value to bet on. Sometimes these will be the same thing. Other times they won’t, especially when favorites have especially short odds. They’ll probably win, but betting on them isn’t worth it.
(All odds from Caesars Sportsbook, official partner of Bet.NOLA.com.)
AL East
Pick to win: New York Yankees (+225)
Best value: Tampa Bay Rays (+290)
The Blue Jays are the favorite at +185, and they’ll certainly be good, but this division should be very close between the top three teams, so I’ll take the one with the highest odds for value. The Yankees have gone through an offseason of storylines like they haven’t done enough to win, but this team still has a plethora of talent and, importantly, the best starting rotation in the division by a decent margin.
AL Central
Pick to win: Chicago White Sox (-200)
Best value: Chicago White Sox (-200)
You could make an argument for the newly christened Cleveland Guardians at +1100 for value, but it’s honestly difficult to see any other team winning this division. The White Sox have the best lineup, the best rotation and the best bullpen in baseball. If you don’t like paying this much juice, just stay away from the division altogether.
AL West
Pick to win: Houston Astros (-175)
Best value: Seattle Mariners (+460)
It’s possible the Mariners’ young guns all grow up at the same time and they make this even more of a race than they did last year, when Houston had to wait to the last week of the season to decide the race. More likely is that the Astros, even minus Carlos Correa, can still ride superior pitching to another division crown.
NL East
Pick to win: Atlanta Braves (+120)
Best value: Miami Marlins (+1500)
The Braves won the World Series last year, but they actually went below their win total and only won the NL East because the Mets and Phillies faded badly. Still, they’ll have Ronald Acuna back after a month or so, and there’s a good chance Atlanta is actually better than last year (and an even better chance they don’t win another World Series). But the rest of the division is capable of making a run, and at this price, the Marlins and their arsenal of young pitching is worth a flier. If you’re feeling a little less risky, the Marlins are also +250 to make the playoffs.
NL Central
Pick to win: Milwaukee Brewers (-180)
Best value: Milwaukee Brewers (-180)
In some ways, this feels like a wide-open division, but I keep coming back to the Brewers. The Cubs and Reds both have let important players go, and it’s hard to imagine either fully committing to adding the necessary pieces at the trade deadline to make a run. The Pirates? Please. That leaves the Cardinals, who might have a shot but are aging and already dealing with injuries. Their +225 price isn’t high enough for me to bite.
NL West
Pick to win: Los Angeles Dodgers (-225)
Best value: San Diego Padres (+340)
The best team in baseball still resides at Chavez Ravine, and the Dodgers likely will win 100 or more games again. But remember that L.A. actually didn’t win this division last year. If another team is going to make a run, it’s the Padres, who collapsed down the stretch last year but still have oodles of talent and a steady new manager in Bob Melvin who has won four division titles in his career, including the NL West with Arizona in 2007.
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